Austin housing continues to balance high supply with cautious demand, creating a market where buyers hold the upper hand while sellers adapt to shifting conditions.

Scroll down to view the full Austin Daily Real Estate Briefing PDF for September 17, 2025.​

Market Overview

Today’s Austin real estate market update shows 16,872 active residential listings, a 14.9 percent increase from the same time last year when inventory stood at 14,686. While this count is below the June 2025 high of 18,146, the market remains supply-heavy, giving buyers more leverage than in previous years. Roughly 58 percent of all active homes have had at least one price drop, underscoring how competitive conditions have become.

Pending contracts, the measure of homes under agreement but not yet closed, slipped slightly from last year. There are 4,099 pending listings today, down 1.7 percent compared to September 2024. When stacked against the flow of new listings, pending demand is still struggling to keep pace. Year-to-date, Austin has seen 39,805 new listings, 1.6 percent more than last year and about 20 percent above the long-term average. Yet cumulative pending sales for the year are 6.7 percent lower than 2024, highlighting a persistent imbalance.

This mismatch between supply and demand shows up in the Activity Index, which tracks market velocity. Today’s reading is 19.5 percent, down from 22.1 percent a year ago. That represents an 11.6 percent decline, confirming slower buyer activity relative to the volume of homes available.

Housing Prices

Despite the higher inventory, prices in Austin remain below their 2022 peaks. The average sold price in September is $564,512, representing a 17.2 percent ($117,000) drop from the May 2022 high of $681,939. The median sold price sits at $435,000, down 20.9 percent from the $550,000 peak in May 2022.

Measured against three years prior, median pricing is still 7.5 percent lower, which signals that the correction is not just a short-term adjustment but a broader market reset. Long-term appreciation for Austin real estate remains strong at 4.838 percent annually over the past 25 years. Using that growth rate, analysts project it could take about 63 months—until November 2030—for prices to return to peak values, assuming today’s $435,000 median marks the bottom.

Regional Trends

Different parts of the metro are experiencing diverging outcomes. The bottom 25th percentile of homes is down 4.3 percent year-over-year, while the top 25th percentile has gained 7.3 percent. This gap indicates stronger resilience among higher-priced homes, while more affordable segments are feeling heavier pressure from inventory and affordability concerns.

On a city-level comparison, 10 markets are showing year-over-year median price increases, while 20 are down. Areas like Georgetown, Leander, and Liberty Hill continue to see significant inventory growth, leading to longer absorption times. For example, months of inventory across the Austin metro is now 5.97, up 14 percent from 5.24 a year ago. Within the city of Austin itself, inventory stands at 5.40 months, up modestly from 5.31 in September 2024.

List-to-Sale Price Performance

Negotiation power has shifted toward buyers. The absorption rate, which measures the ratio of homes sold to active inventory, is 17.5 percent, far below the historical average of 31.8 percent. A balanced market typically hovers closer to 20 percent, so today’s lower reading reflects weaker demand relative to available homes.

The Market Flow Score, which normalizes supply-demand balance on a scale of 0 to 10, sits at 5.54. This is below the long-term average of 6.60, again showing that turnover is slower and momentum is not on the side of sellers.

Sales Trends

Sales volume also reflects the softer demand backdrop. September has recorded 2,279 closed transactions, contributing to a year-to-date total of 22,833 homes sold. That’s 4.5 percent lower than the same period in 2024, though still 5.3 percent above the long-term average.

When measured against population and agent counts, sales look even leaner. So far in 2025, there have been 893 home sales per 100,000 residents, 6.8 percent lower than last year and 22.4 percent below the historical norm. From an agent productivity perspective, there have been 1,222 sales per 1,000 Realtors year-to-date, effectively flat compared with 2024 but well below the long-term average.

Austin Housing Forecast

Looking ahead, the combination of elevated inventory, slowed pending contracts, and softer absorption suggests that Austin housing will remain a buyer’s market into the fall of 2025. Sellers must prepare for extended marketing times and more frequent price reductions. Buyers, however, have greater choice and negotiating leverage, especially in segments where supply is deepest.

Investors should focus on yield-driven opportunities, as cap rates are supported by declining prices in certain neighborhoods. For agents, mastering the data is essential: clients will expect precise guidance on pricing strategy, timing, and what these trends mean for long-term value.

If the historical 25-year appreciation rate holds, prices will eventually recover. But the forecast shows that this process may take more than five years, meaning buyers entering now should plan with a long-term horizon rather than expect short-term gains.

Conclusion

The Austin housing market on September 17, 2025, is best described as supply-heavy, price-adjusted, and buyer-leaning. Active listings are up nearly 15 percent year-over-year, more than half of homes on the market have already cut prices, and inventory has risen close to six months. Pending contracts are not keeping pace, absorption is well below average, and median prices remain 21 percent under peak levels.

For buyers, this environment offers flexibility and negotiation power. For sellers, it demands sharper pricing and patience. For agents and investors, it requires clear-eyed analysis and long-term planning.